Gojo's hot season against Humbert's higher level
Gojo v Humbert Match page ›A hot qualifier meets a struggling No. 38
Borna Gojo has come through qualifying and won again on Monday. Ugo Humbert, ranked No. 38 to Gojo's No. 133, has spent the year treading water. So the question on Wednesday at 12:00 UTC is whether form can beat level.
This is their first meeting, so there's no history to lean on. Both men have to work it out from what each has done lately.
Two seasons heading in opposite directions
Gojo is 39–16 this year and has won two titles, in Metepec and Morelia. Most of that came on hard courts, which is the surface in Stockholm. Humbert is 28–28, and 1–4 against the current top 10.
Predictionist's ratings agree on the direction: Gojo has climbed this season and Humbert has fallen. Even so, Humbert is still No. 104 on those ratings against No. 211 for Gojo. A good season hasn't yet closed that distance, and it's the biggest factor in Predictionist's number.
What Stockholm has shown so far
Gojo has been busy. He beat Mika Brunold 7-5 4-6 7-6 in the qualifying semi-finals and Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 7-6 in the qualifying final. On Monday he beat Tomas Machac, ranked No. 69, 6-3 6-4. That's three wins and two tiebreak sets along the way.
Humbert has played once here, beating No. 56 Adolfo Vallejo 6-4 6-3. It was a clean win, but one match can't tell us whether his slump is over.
Humbert's serve edge is real but not huge
Predictionist expects Humbert to win 71% of his service points, against 65% for Gojo. That should give Humbert easier holds and make every break chance harder for Gojo to find.
Recent results narrow the picture. Gojo has held 86% of his latest service games, against 83% for Humbert. Humbert's serve is the better weapon on paper, but it hasn't been shutting matches down lately.
If it goes the distance
Gojo is 10–5 in deciding sets this season. Humbert is 7–15, and that's a lot of matches to have lost the last set of. A third set would suit the player whose year has been steadier.
Humbert's best route is to avoid that scenario and use his serve to win in two.
Our lean
We lean to Humbert, whom Predictionist gives a 69% chance, because his level and serve are higher. Gojo's form and hard-court season keep it open, and a match that goes to a deciding set would make him a real threat.
What to watch
Whether Humbert can close it in two sets. If Gojo drags it to a third, the deciding-set records come into play.