Can Cerundolo repeat his French Open win on a hard court?
Michelsen v Manuel Cerundolo Match page ›A clay win at the French Open, a hard court in Stockholm
Cerundolo has already done the thing he needs to do on Tuesday. He beat Michelsen in straight sets at the French Open last year. The question is whether that win travels to a hard court, where Michelsen has been the far more comfortable player this season.
Predictionist leans Michelsen, but the French Open result is why this one is worth a proper look.
What one match on clay can tell you
The meeting was 6-3 6-2 6-4 in the first round on 25 May 2025. That's a clean win, and Predictionist counts it in Cerundolo's favour.
Still, it's one match, played on a different surface, so treat it as a hint about how the two match up and not as a pattern. Michelsen has had a long time to think about it too.
Michelsen's hard-court season is the bigger story
Michelsen is 31–16 on hard courts this year, and he opened in Stockholm with a 6-2 6-3 win over Yannick Hanfmann on Monday. Cerundolo is 15–12 on this surface. His better work has come on clay, where he's 23–13.
That gap is the clearest argument for Michelsen. The French Open win came on Cerundolo's best surface, and this court gives him less to work with.
Whose serve gets leaned on
The biggest factors in Predictionist's number are the rating gap, No. 46 against No. 106 on Predictionist's own ratings, and Michelsen's stronger serve-and-return game.
Predictionist expects Michelsen to win 68% of points on serve, against 62% for Cerundolo. A few points either way add up to a lot of games over a match. Michelsen has also broken serve in 28% of his recent return games, against 21% for Cerundolo. So Cerundolo's service games are likely to feel more pressure than Michelsen's will.
Where Cerundolo's chances improve
If Cerundolo can stay level for a long stretch, the match tilts his way. He's 16–8 in deciding sets this season, while Michelsen is 11–11. A third set is a place where Cerundolo has little reason to feel nervous.
That only matters if he gets there. Doing it means holding serve more comfortably than the numbers suggest he will.
Our lean
Michelsen should win on this surface, and Predictionist gives him a 66% chance. Cerundolo's win at the French Open and his deciding-set record mean he can't be written off.
What to watch
Notice how many break chances Michelsen creates on Cerundolo's serve early on. If Cerundolo keeps him from getting any, the French Open script is back in play.