Musetti on the rise, Humbert on the slide in Stockholm
Musetti v Humbert Match page ›A rising season meets a flat one
Can Ugo Humbert hold off a Lorenzo Musetti who has been climbing since January? Humbert's year has been close to break-even, 29–28, and Predictionist's ratings have him dropping since the season began. Musetti, at 30–14, has been winning far more often than losing, and he has moved up.
On the ATP list the two look fairly close, No. 25 and No. 39. Predictionist's ratings count who a player has beaten as well as how often, and they see a much wider gap: Musetti is No. 28, Humbert No. 93. Humbert's results this year haven't held up as well as his ATP spot suggests. Both men have reached this quarter-final on Thursday 12 November, but they arrive from very different places.
The return is where Musetti pulls away
Serving won't separate them much. Predictionist expects Musetti to win 68% of the points when he serves in this match and Humbert 65%. Over a season they protect their own service games about equally well, 85% for Musetti and 84% for Humbert, so neither gives breaks away cheaply.
The gap is on the other side of the net. Over their last 40 matches with a game log, Musetti has broken his opponent's serve in 25% of his return games and Humbert in 19%. So Musetti tends to get more chances to take a lead, while Humbert has to work harder to find even one. The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is Musetti's higher rating, which reflects how well he's been beating people this season. The better serve and return come next.
What Humbert has going for him
Humbert's best argument is the tiebreak. He's 14–8 in them this season, so a set that stays level to 6-6 is where he's done his best work. Musetti is 4–5, but that's only nine tiebreaks, so take it as a hint rather than a verdict.
His serve holds up at tour-average level, which gives Musetti no free games, and he arrives having won both matches here in straight sets. The weak spot is a third set. He's 7–15 in deciding sets this season, a record big enough to count against him. A tiebreak could rescue Humbert in a set, but he's better off finishing in two.
Two runs, one meeting
Humbert has dropped no sets in Stockholm. He beat Adolfo Vallejo, ranked 56th, 6-4 6-3, then Borna Gojo, ranked 134th, 6-2 6-4. Musetti has played once, beating Toby Samuel, ranked 95th, 6-1 6-4.
Neither man has faced anyone ranked higher than 56th on the way here, so these runs don't tell us much about how Thursday will go.
Our lean
Musetti is the favourite, and Predictionist gives him a 63% chance. His results this year are better and he's heading up while Humbert heads down. Humbert still has a real route through a tiebreak.
What to watch
Whether the first set reaches a tiebreak. That is Humbert's route, and a Musetti break before 5-5 closes it.