Sonego's sharp week or Tabilo's higher level in Stockholm?
Sonego v Tabilo Match page ›The better player on paper, the busier player this week
Tabilo has the stronger ranking and the rising ratings. Sonego has the matches. The question in Stockholm on Wednesday is whether a week of live rhythm counts for more than a clear gap in level.
Predictionist thinks it does, but only just.
What Sonego's three wins give him
Sonego came through qualifying, beating Olle Wallin 6-4 7-6 and then Inaki Montes-De La Torre 7-5 6-3. On Tuesday he beat Quentin Halys, ranked No. 45, 6-4 7-6(4) in the round of 32. Three matches, six sets, no set dropped.
Two of those six sets went to a 7-6 finish, so he's been tested and has come out ahead each time. He walks out on the Stockholm court having played there the day before.
Nine days since Paris
Tabilo's last match was a 6-2 6-3 loss to Rafael Jodar in the Paris Masters round of 64 on Monday 2 November. Predictionist counts his nine days without a match against him, while Sonego has had one day off.
Recent match play is what moves Predictionist's number most. A gap that long can cost timing on serve and return, especially against someone who has settled in. How much it costs Tabilo is the one real unknown, because some players come back from a break looking fresh.
The level gap Sonego has to overcome
This is Tabilo's best argument. He's ranked No. 31 with 1,525 ranking points, against No. 115 and 511 for Sonego. On Predictionist's ratings, which weigh every result by the strength of the opponent, Tabilo is No. 122 and Sonego No. 189. Over the season Tabilo's ratings have climbed and Sonego's have slipped.
Tabilo also won their latest meeting, 6-4 6-2 in Montreal in 2024, after Sonego took the first, 7-5 6-1 in Winston-Salem in 2022. It's one match from two years ago, so it nudges the picture rather than settling it.
Serve barely separates them
Predictionist expects Sonego to win 69% of his service points and Tabilo 68%. Most points are decided on serve, so a gap that small leaves little to choose between them. Sonego's slight edge there backs up the lean, but it doesn't carry it.
Our lean
Sonego is a narrow favourite, with Predictionist giving him a 56% chance, because his rhythm this week and a slight serve edge outweigh Tabilo's better ranking and ratings. If Tabilo looks sharp from the first game, the main reason for the lean disappears and his higher level takes over.
What to watch
Sonego has needed a second-set tiebreak in two of his three wins here. Notice whether Tabilo, in his first match since Paris, is level with him through the long exchanges of the opening set.