Ruud's clean week against Struff's tiebreak toughness
Struff v Ruud Match page ›A smooth week meets a scrappy one
Can Struff's comfort in tight sets hold off a player who has barely been tested? That's the question for Thursday's 1/8-final at the Paris Masters (5 November, 16:00 UTC).
Ruud hasn't lost a set so far. He beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3 6-2, then Rafael Jodar 6-3 6-4. Jodar is ranked No. 10, and neither Gea (No. 44) nor Tirante (No. 53), Struff's opponents, comes close to that. Struff has needed five sets over his two matches, beating Arthur Gea 7-6 6-3 and then Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3). That's three tiebreaks in two matches, and he came from a set down against Tirante. He's through, but he's done more work for it.
Where Ruud should get his openings
The biggest factors in Predictionist's number are the rating gap, with Ruud at No. 30 and Struff at No. 60, and how often each player wins points and breaks on serve.
Ruud has broken serve in 26% of his recent return games, against 17% for Struff. So Ruud should get more break chances on Struff's serve than Struff gets on his. Predictionist also expects Ruud to win 71% of his points on serve in this match and Struff 67%. A four-point gap sounds small, but it adds up over a match and leaves Struff little room for a loose service game.
Struff holds his serve 83% of the time, about tour average, so he isn't weak there. He just can't afford many slips against someone who holds 86% of the time.
Struff's way into the tight sets
Struff's best argument is the tiebreak. He is 15–11 in tiebreaks this season. Ruud is 8–11 in tiebreaks this season. If a set reaches 6-6, Struff's record is the better one, and that's the clearest route he has to the win. He's just shown it by winning the 7-6(3) third set against Tirante.
There's one old result in his favour. He beat Ruud 6-4 6-4 in the Thiem's Seven on 8 July 2020. It's a single match, played years ago, so treat it as a hint and nothing more.
If the match goes to a third set, the numbers swing back. Ruud is 9–5 in deciding sets this season. That's only 14 matches, so it's a hint too. Struff is 9–14.
Our lean
Ruud is the likelier winner, and Predictionist gives him a 66% chance, mostly for his rating and his stronger serve and return. The view would soften if the first set goes deep, because that's where Struff does best.
What to watch
Whether Struff can take a set to 6-6, since that's the one place where his record clearly beats Ruud's.