Can Tabilo solve Jodar again after two straight losses?
Tabilo v Jodar Match page ›
Tabilo won the first meeting, Jodar the last two
Rafael Jodar has beaten Alejandro Tabilo twice in a row, the latest only six days ago in Basel. Can Tabilo get back to the form that won him their first meeting?
That first meeting was at Indian Wells in March, and Tabilo won it 6-1 6-2. Jodar then took Cincinnati 6-2 6-1 on Monday 17 August and Basel 6-4 6-2 on Tuesday 27 October. All three matches ended in straight sets, and the lopsided scores have gone both ways.
Level on holding serve, apart on points won
Look at how often each man wins his own service games and they seem alike. Tabilo wins 83% of them and Jodar 82%, both about tour average. So Tabilo's serve isn't the weak spot here.
But winning a service game and winning points on serve are different things. Predictionist expects Jodar to win 68% of his service points in this match, against 61% for Tabilo. That gives Jodar a bigger cushion every time he serves, and it makes Tabilo's own service games harder to win than his season figure suggests.
The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is the gap in overall level. Predictionist's own ratings put Jodar at No. 21 and Tabilo at No. 120. Jodar's stronger play on both serve and return also counts.
Hard courts are where the season splits them
Paris is played on hard courts, and that's where the two seasons look furthest apart. Jodar is 37–14 on hard this year, so he's been winning on this surface far more often than not. Tabilo is 13–13.
Tabilo's year has been built elsewhere. He's 24–12 on clay, and his one title came in Aix en Provence. Indian Wells shows he can beat Jodar on a hard court, but over a full season hard courts haven't been kind to him.
Tiebreaks, deciding sets and a short turnaround
Neither man has been dependable in tiebreaks. Tabilo is 11–14 and Jodar 9–11, so a tiebreak is no safe place for either of them. Jodar has the better deciding-set record, 18–6 against 16–12 for Tabilo.
Jodar's last match was a three-set loss to Valentin Vacherot in Basel on Thursday 29 October, with two tiebreak sets. Tabilo's last match was his defeat to Jodar two days earlier. Those dates are all we know about how fresh either player is, so we won't read anything into them.
Our lean
Jodar is the favourite at Predictionist's 71%, backed by two recent wins and a much stronger hard-court season. Tabilo's route back is his serve: if he keeps winning his service games as often as he has all season, the gap in points won on serve narrows and this gets closer.
What to watch
The first set. Every meeting so far ended in straight sets, so whoever won the opening set won the match each time.