Borges's steadier serve against Buse's tight-match record
By Max Goodwin ·
Borges v Buse Match page ›Can the better server beat the man who's already beaten him?
Can Borges's steadier serve hold off Buse, who beat him in September and has just knocked out Medvedev, the No. 5 player, 6-4 6-4? They play in the Paris Masters 1/8-finals on Thursday 5 November at 14:30 UTC, on hard courts.
Buse won their only meeting, a Davis Cup match in September 2025, 3-6 6-3 6-2 after losing the first set. Predictionist still leans to Borges. Here's why, and where the doubt sits.
Why Predictionist still leans Borges
The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is the serve. Borges has held 85% of his recent service games, against 74% for Buse. That makes Borges's service games the safer ones and Buse's the likelier place for a break.
The ratings point the same way. Predictionist rates Borges No. 74 and Buse No. 98, though the ATP list has Buse higher, at No. 33 against No. 49. So Predictionist sees Borges as the stronger player at the moment, whatever the ATP list says.
Buse's answer when the score tightens
This is where Borges's case gets shakier. Buse is 17–9 in deciding sets this season, while Borges is 7–10. In tiebreaks it's 14–10 for Buse and 10–19 for Borges.
Those records matter if the two serves cancel each other out and a set comes down to a few points. That's when Buse has done better. It also echoes September, when he came from a set down to win the last two. One match is a thin sample, but Borges has something to answer for.
The real uncertainty is which strength counts for more here: Borges's more frequent holds, or Buse's habit of winning the tight ones.
What each man's done this week
Neither arrives short of rhythm. Borges beat Moise Kouame 6-3 6-1 and then Karen Khachanov, the No. 25 player, 6-3 6-4. Buse beat Zizou Bergs 6-2 6-4 before the win over Medvedev.
The bigger scalp belongs to Buse, and his season against the current top 10 backs it up: 2–2, against 0–3 for Borges. Those are small counts, so treat them as a hint about who's handled the biggest names.
Our lean
Borges is the fair favourite, with Predictionist giving him a 66% chance because his serve is steadier. A close match, though, is where Buse has been stronger this season.
What to watch
Whether Borges can find a break in Buse's service games before a set drifts toward a tiebreak, which is where Buse has done better this season.