Tabilo v Tirante: does the Santiago win carry to hard?
Tabilo v Agustin Tirante Match page ›A rematch that keeps changing hands
Alejandro Tabilo has won two of their three meetings and the most recent one, but Thiago Agustin Tirante is the man who beat him last summer. So the question for this Stockholm Open semi-final on Friday 13 November is whether February's result still counts for anything on a hard court.
The meetings have alternated. Tabilo won the Cordoba final on Sunday 30 January 2022, 6-3 6-4. Tirante won in Cancun on Friday 15 August 2025, 6-2 6-4. Tabilo took the latest in Santiago on Friday 27 February 2026, coming from a set down to win 4-6 6-3 6-3.
What a clay win tells us about a hard-court semi
Santiago was played on clay, and our records name no surface for the other two meetings. So the one result Predictionist leans on most was earned on a different surface from this one. The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is that last meeting, and that's a thin foundation for a hard-court match.
Tirante showed in Cancun that he can solve Tabilo, and Tabilo showed in Santiago that he can solve Tirante back. Three matches is a small sample, and we can't say much more than that.
Serve won't split them
On the tour rankings Tabilo is clearly ahead, No. 31 against No. 51. Predictionist's own ratings, which are built from results over the past year, see it differently. They put Tirante a shade in front, No. 93 to No. 96, so on recent form these two are very close.
The serve numbers lean Tirante's way too. He has held serve in 84% of his recent service games and Tabilo in 81%. That's a small edge: Tirante gives away a few fewer service games, so Tabilo has a little less to work with when he's returning. Over the whole season both are about tour average at holding serve, so neither has a serve that shuts the other out. Tabilo will have to find his breaks against the slightly steadier server.
Tiebreaks and the hard-court record
If breaks are scarce, tiebreaks become the pressure points, and this is where the two part ways. Tirante is 13–10 in them this season. Tabilo is 12–14, so he's lost more tiebreaks than he's won this year.
The hard-court record is close too. Tirante is 18–15 on the surface this season and Tabilo is 15–14. That's a small edge for Tirante, and it cuts against the idea that Tabilo's February win should carry over to Stockholm.
Two similar weeks in Stockholm
Both men arrive after long matches. Tabilo beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6 6-7 7-5 in the round of 16, then Alex Michelsen 7-5 7-6(2) in the quarter-finals. Sonego is No. 115 and Michelsen No. 35.
Tirante beat Jaume Munar, now No. 70, 7-6 6-3. His round of 16 opponent, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, gave him a walkover, so he didn't have to play that round. He then beat No. 107 Alexander Shevchenko 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-3 on Thursday 12 November, the same day Tabilo played Michelsen. Michelsen is the best-ranked opponent either man has faced here, but neither route looks much easier than the other.
Our lean
We lean to Tabilo, but only slightly: Predictionist gives him a 56% chance, built mostly on winning their last meeting. If Tirante holds serve at his recent level and takes the tiebreaks, that lean goes away.
What to watch
Whether a tiebreak turns up at all. Tabilo went to one in both of his matches here, and Tirante in two of his wins, so this could easily be decided that way.