Struff won easily in Beijing. Can Tirante force a third set?
Agustin Tirante v Struff Match page ›
Easy in Beijing, but a third set is different
Jan-Lennard Struff has a clean win over Thiago Agustin Tirante and Predictionist has him as the clear favourite on Wednesday in the Paris Masters. So why isn't this a formality?
Because Struff's season has a soft spot, and Tirante's season has a strength in exactly that place. The question is whether Tirante can drag this into a deciding set, where the two of them look very different.
A serve battle with almost nothing between them
Struff holds 83% of his service games and Tirante holds 84%. That's about as even as it gets, and it tells you neither man will be able to count on easy return games. Predictionist does expect Struff to win a few more points on his own serve in this match, but the gap is slim.
So the serve doesn't separate them. When both hold this reliably, the match gets decided in the handful of games where someone is pushed, and that's where the other numbers start to matter.
What Beijing does and doesn't tell us
Struff won their only meeting 6-1 6-4 on hard courts, in the 1/16-finals in Beijing on 30 September. Paris is on hard courts too, so the surface isn't a new variable. Predictionist counts that result in Struff's favour.
Still, it's one match. The scoreline was lopsided, especially the opening set, but a single meeting can't tell us how Tirante has adjusted since. It's a reason for Struff's confidence.
Where Tirante finds a way back
Here's the crack in the favourite's case. Tirante is 13–7 in deciding sets this season. Struff is 8–14. A player who wins most of his third sets tends to be comfortable staying in a match, while Struff has let too many of them slip.
Struff does have the better tiebreak record this season, so a tight set that ends in a tiebreak is not obviously Tirante's territory. His route is longer: take a set, then lean on his composure in the third.
Why the ratings still favour Struff
The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is the rating gap. Struff is No. 68 on its ratings and Tirante is No. 99, and a rating weighs every result by the quality of the opponent. Struff's higher serve-and-return level and the Beijing win add to that.
That's a solid base, and it explains why one strong deciding-set record doesn't flip the picture.
Our lean
We lean Struff, with Predictionist giving him a 71% chance, as long as he wins in two sets. If it reaches a third, Tirante's record there makes it a much closer match than 71% suggests.
What to watch
How Tirante starts. In Beijing Struff took the first set 6-1, and an even opening set here would already be a change.