Tjen beat Kudermetova easily once. Will that hold in Chennai?
Tjen v Kudermetova Match page ›A lopsided win and a trend pointing the other way
Janice Tjen handled Polina Kudermetova 6-2 6-2 on hard courts in Guangzhou on 27 October. They meet again on hard courts in the Chennai Open quarter-final on Friday 6 November at 04:30 UTC.
So the question is how much that result still counts. On Predictionist's ratings, which track how well each player has been performing, Kudermetova has climbed all season and Tjen has fallen. It comes down to whether Tjen's earlier win outweighs Kudermetova's momentum.
Same surface, same two players, one meeting
It's a good sign for Tjen that she's already beaten this opponent on the same surface. It is still only one meeting, and it tells us less than the scoreline suggests.
The Chennai runs don't separate them either. Tjen beat Joanna Garland 7-6(1) 6-1 after an opening win over Katherine Hui. Kudermetova dropped a set to Viktoria Morvayova, then beat Oksana Selekhmeteva, ranked No. 122, 6-3 6-0. Both have beaten lower-ranked opponents this week, and with Tjen at No. 75 and Kudermetova at No. 93 in the rankings, they're close on paper.
Tjen's serve against Kudermetova's return
This is where the match is decided. Tjen has held 71% of her recent service games, against 65% for Kudermetova. That leaves Kudermetova fewer chances to break her, and it's the biggest factor in Predictionist's pick of Tjen.
But Kudermetova has broken serve in 38% of her recent return games, against 28% for Tjen. She can put Tjen's service games under pressure more often than Tjen can do the same to hers. If Tjen starts losing even a few more of her service games, the edge gets thin quickly.
Form and the deciding set
The season records show how differently the year has gone. Kudermetova is 42–25 and Tjen is 23–30. That's the clearest sign Kudermetova's form is better right now.
Deciding sets tell a similar story: Kudermetova is 16–7 and Tjen 5–8. Tjen's figure comes from only 13 deciding sets, so treat it as a hint. But if this one goes the distance, Kudermetova has the more reassuring history behind her.
Our lean
Predictionist gives Tjen a 61% chance, a real but modest edge built on her steadier serve and her win in Guangzhou. Kudermetova's recent rise is the main reason for doubt.
What to watch
How many of Tjen's service games turn into long, drawn-out battles. Those are the games where Kudermetova's return gets its best chances to break.