Zakharova 0-3 against Stefanini, yet a coin flip in Chennai
Zakharova v Stefanini Match page ›Three meetings, no sets for Zakharova
Anastasia Zakharova has never taken a set off Lucrezia Stefanini, and on Friday 6 November at 14:00 UTC they meet again in the Chennai Open quarter-finals. The record points one way, but Predictionist sees this as a near coin flip. So is the history telling us something the numbers miss?
The history is lopsided. Stefanini won in Sharm ElSheikh in February 2022, 6-2 6-3. She won again at the Australian Open in January 2023, 6-3 7-5. The latest was on hard courts at Cincinnati, 6-4 6-2 on Tuesday 11 August 2026, the same surface as this week. Zakharova's closest set was that 7-5 in 2023. Three matches is a small sample, and two of them are years old, but the most recent one is recent and on hard courts.
Stefanini breaks serve, Zakharova doesn't
Their service games look alike. Zakharova has held in 64% of her recent service games and Stefanini in 63%. Neither has a clear edge when serving.
The split is on return. Stefanini has broken serve in 54% of her recent return games, while Zakharova has managed 35%. That's the biggest gap between them. It leaves Zakharova under steady pressure on her own serve, with far fewer chances to break back. To get anywhere, she has to hold almost every time and treat any break of Stefanini as a bonus.
Where Zakharova has the better record
The pressure numbers favour Zakharova this season. She's 12–4 in tiebreaks and 11–5 in deciding sets, each from 16 matches. She also won the opening set 7-6 against Polina Iatcenko here, then took the second 6-1.
Stefanini is 6–7 in tiebreaks, and with only 13 matches behind it, that's a hint rather than proof. She's 12–8 in deciding sets. None of the three meetings between these two came close to a third set. Zakharova's edge in tight situations is real, but she has to get to one first.
Ratings, rankings and the road to Friday
The biggest factor in Predictionist's number is Stefanini's higher rating. On Predictionist's own ratings list she's No. 241, against No. 270 for Zakharova. That's a small gap, and the WTA rankings put Zakharova ahead, at No. 107 to Stefanini's No. 117.
The road here doesn't separate them either. Neither has dropped a set in Chennai. Zakharova beat Iatcenko (WTA No. 169) and then Vaishnavi Adkar (WTA No. 344) 6-3 6-0. Stefanini beat Rada Zolotareva (WTA No. 328) 6-2 6-2 and Simona Waltert (WTA No. 133) 6-2 6-3. Stefanini's opponents were a little stronger on average, but not by much.
Our lean
It's close to a coin flip, and Predictionist's 54% for Stefanini says so. We give her a slight edge because she breaks serve far more often and has beaten Zakharova every time. Zakharova's route is to hold steadily and push a set into a tiebreak.
What to watch
Whether Zakharova can push any set toward a tiebreak, the one place her season record is clearly stronger. None of their three earlier meetings came near one.