Matteo Arnaldi World No. 38 · 
Italy 
Taylor Fritz World No. 12 · 
USA Live Polymarket prices · $279 traded across 16 markets · as of 02:48 UTC
Matteo Arnaldi (serving) Taylor Fritz (serving) Who comes in stronger: ranking, season record, form and the basics side by side.
| Matteo Arnaldi | Fact | Taylor Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| No. 38 | World ranking | No. 12 |
| 1,386 | Ranking points | 2,880 |
| 18–16 | 2026 record | 33–17 |
| LLWLW | Last 5 matches | WLLLL |
| 25 | Age | 28 |
| 185 cm | Height | 196 cm |
| Italy | Country | USA |
| Not on record | Turned pro | 2015 |
Their most recent completed meetings, latest first.
Head-to-head record not fetched yet.
Prediction market probabilities from Polymarket, as recorded over the life of the market.
No price history for this market yet.
How the win chances moved before the match.
As of 9 October 2026, 02:48 UTC, Taylor Fritz is priced at 79% to beat Matteo Arnaldi at Shanghai Masters, with Matteo Arnaldi at 22%. That is a heavy favorite’s price - traders give Matteo Arnaldi little chance. Prices are Polymarket probabilities and move with every trade.
79%
What is happening around Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz - headlines from our approved sources, links go to the source.
No headlines about this match from our sources yet - stories land here as soon as they are published.
Other matches from this tournament.
Arthur Gea 53% 
Ugo Humbert 48% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli 
Adrian Mannarino 37% 
Flavio Cobolli 64% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev 
Rei Sakamoto 28% 
Andrey Rublev 72% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier 
Ben Shelton 88% 
Daniel Altmaier 13% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima 
Matteo Berrettini 41% 
Brandon Nakashima 60% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe 
Yannick Hanfmann 30% 
Frances Tiafoe 71% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Quentin Halys vs Alexander Blockx 
Quentin Halys 46% 
Alexander Blockx 55% View match › Shanghai Masters Round of 64 Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu 
Alexander Zverev 88% 
Yibing Wu 13% View match › Polymarket prices as of
Beyond the winner: the side markets on this match, in plain words.
How long does it go?
Straight sets
66%
quoted, no trades yet
Who takes the first set?
Taylor Fritz
72%
quoted, no trades yet
How one-sided?
Taylor Fritz wins by 2 sets or more
55%
quoted, no trades yet
Prices as of 9 October 2026, 03:31 UTC. 16 markets on this event on Polymarket.