Who Beats the Market on Polymarket
Wallets that called outcomes more often than the odds said they would - last 30 days
Everyone on Polymarket sees the same odds. These wallets beat them. Being right 80% of the time is easy if you only back favourites, so we measure something harder: how often each wallet was right against how often the market said it would be.
Prices on Polymarket are probabilities - 40¢ means a 40% chance. The gap between a wallet’s hit rate and that price is measured in percentage points (pp), not percent. More: How Pricing Works · Where the Edge Comes From, in the Predictionist School.
10,745Wallets screened
24Made the board
+80 ppBest edge
$1.6MStaked between them
Furthest ahead of the market right now
G
Goyim69
0x017b…1ef4
Ahead of market+80 pp
Calls that landed89%
Settled trades73
Profit, 30d$9k
Their calls came true89%
The market expected them to9%
65 of 73 calls landed.
Calls the market got most wrong
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winnermarket gave it 1%+99 pp
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonmarket gave it 1%+99 pp
LoL: GAM Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnermarket gave it 1%+99 pp
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winnermarket gave it 2%+98 pp
The rest of the board
Everyone else whose record ran ahead of the odds they were taking, by more than chance accounts for.
| Trader | Calls that landed | Market expected | Difference | Won / lost | Staked | Profit 30d | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
S
2 |
80% | 37% | +43 pp | 58 / 15 | $31k | $3k | Open |
|
s
3 |
84% | 39% | +45 pp | 37 / 7 | $13k | $2k | Open |
|
I
4 |
67% | 22% | +45 pp | 26 / 13 | $8k | $363 | Open |
|
w
5 |
62% | 20% | +43 pp | 25 / 15 | $7k | $23 | Open |
|
A
6 |
100% | 60% | +40 pp | 22 / 0 | $6k | $5k | Open |
|
M
7 |
100% | 60% | +40 pp | 20 / 0 | $3k | $3k | Open |
|
o
8 |
86% | 50% | +36 pp | 62 / 10 | $15k | $7k | Open |
|
0
9 |
58% | 20% | +38 pp | 21 / 15 | $23k | $3k | Open |
|
p
10 |
94% | 63% | +30 pp | 43 / 3 | $28k | $13k | Open |
|
L
11 |
71% | 36% | +35 pp | 22 / 9 | $324k | $4k | Open |
|
B
12 |
79% | 49% | +30 pp | 37 / 10 | $12k | $6k | Open |
|
P
13 |
62% | 28% | +34 pp | 18 / 11 | $11k | $3k | Open |
|
W
14 |
89% | 57% | +31 pp | 24 / 3 | $41k | $15k | Open |
|
s
15 |
69% | 41% | +28 pp | 44 / 20 | $355k | $9k | Open |
|
L
16 |
44% | 13% | +31 pp | 14 / 18 | $4k | $516 | Open |
|
A
17 |
79% | 47% | +32 pp | 19 / 5 | $54k | $7k | Open |
|
0
18 |
48% | 17% | +31 pp | 13 / 14 | $15k | $1k | Open |
|
0
19 |
48% | 24% | +24 pp | 42 / 45 | $24k | $5k | Open |
|
F
20 |
52% | 31% | +21 pp | 66 / 60 | $162k | $51k | Open |
|
b
21 |
48% | 30% | +19 pp | 76 / 81 | $188k | $19k | Open |
|
b
22 |
33% | 11% | +23 pp | 14 / 28 | $4k | $486 | Open |
|
B
23 |
75% | 52% | +23 pp | 39 / 13 | $30k | $8k | Open |
|
B
24 |
45% | 24% | +21 pp | 22 / 27 | $208k | $79k | Open |
How this is built. Every Polymarket trade from the last 30 days is rebuilt from the public record, screened to remove bots and records too short to trust, then ranked by how far each wallet’s hit rate beat the odds it paid. A record of what already happened, not advice.
Updated 12 Aug 2026, 07:57 UTC