How the match was won, set by set – the better number on each line is marked.
Ben Shelton beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6: 7 aces, 5 of 16 break points, 51% of all points. Priced at 22% before the match – an upset by prediction-market standards.
MATCHSET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 5
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
7
Aces
3
2
Double faults
7
66%
1st serve in
64%
73/10570%
1st serve points won
77/11269%
30/5357%
2nd serve points won
32/6351%
5/1631%
Break points won
3/1127%
8/1173%
Break points saved
11/1669%
34
Winners
38
35
Unforced errors
53
29/4171%
Net points won
27/3577%
66/17538%
Return points won
55/15835%
169/33351%
Total points won
164/33349%
20/2387%
Service games won
19/2479%
198 km/h
Avg 1st serve speed
187 km/h
167 km/h
Avg 2nd serve speed
155 km/h
4,082 m
Distance covered
3,810 m
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
3
Aces
0
0
Double faults
2
63%
1st serve in
65%
12/2450%
1st serve points won
18/2669%
10/1471%
2nd serve points won
7/1450%
1/1100%
Break points won
1/1100%
0/10%
Break points saved
0/10%
7
Winners
9
8
Unforced errors
13
8/989%
Net points won
4/580%
15/4038%
Return points won
16/3842%
37/7847%
Total points won
41/7853%
5/683%
Service games won
5/683%
874 m
Distance covered
866 m
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
1
Aces
1
1
Double faults
3
72%
1st serve in
60%
13/1872%
1st serve points won
12/2548%
4/757%
2nd serve points won
7/1741%
3/933%
Break points won
0/30%
3/3100%
Break points saved
6/967%
8
Winners
8
5
Unforced errors
17
7/1258%
Net points won
7/1070%
23/4255%
Return points won
8/2532%
40/6760%
Total points won
27/6740%
3/3100%
Service games won
1/425%
859 m
Distance covered
713 m
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
2
Aces
0
0
Double faults
0
66%
1st serve in
54%
18/2186%
1st serve points won
8/1362%
5/1145%
2nd serve points won
7/1164%
1/1100%
Break points won
0/30%
3/3100%
Break points saved
0/10%
8
Winners
4
7
Unforced errors
8
6/786%
Net points won
4/580%
9/2438%
Return points won
9/3228%
32/5657%
Total points won
24/5643%
5/5100%
Service games won
3/475%
823 m
Distance covered
794 m
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
1
Aces
0
1
Double faults
0
71%
1st serve in
69%
7/1258%
1st serve points won
13/1872%
1/520%
2nd serve points won
6/875%
0/20%
Break points won
2/367%
1/333%
Break points saved
2/2100%
5
Winners
5
10
Unforced errors
4
2/450%
Net points won
5/5100%
7/2627%
Return points won
9/1753%
15/4335%
Total points won
28/4365%
1/333%
Service games won
4/4100%
587 m
Distance covered
510 m
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
0
Aces
2
0
Double faults
2
65%
1st serve in
70%
23/3077%
1st serve points won
26/3087%
10/1662%
2nd serve points won
5/1338%
0/30%
Break points won
0/10%
1/1100%
Break points saved
3/3100%
6
Winners
12
5
Unforced errors
11
6/967%
Net points won
7/1070%
12/4328%
Return points won
13/4628%
45/8951%
Total points won
44/8949%
6/6100%
Service games won
6/6100%
939 m
Distance covered
927 m
Players
Ranking, season record, form and the basics side by side.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3–0· completed tour-level meetings, this match included
It is the live Polymarket price for a share that pays out if Ben Shelton beats Carlos Alcaraz. Read it as the market’s probability estimate: 100 in 100. It moves with every trade.
How did this market settle?
The market closed once the result was official and paid $1 a share to everyone holding the winner. The percentages on this page are the closing prices.
How much was traded on this match?
$7.3M has been traded across all 26 markets on this event so far.
Where do these numbers come from?
Straight from Polymarket’s public market data – Predictionist reads the same order book traders use. We refresh this page every hour and never adjust the numbers.
