PredictIt
- Operating since October 2014, the oldest legal US political prediction market
- Full CFTC DCM and DCO approval granted September 2025
- Dollar funding via debit card, $10 minimum deposit, no crypto wallet
- Public market data endpoints used by 200+ academic researchers
Quick facts
| Field | Details |
|---|---|
| Best for | Politics-focused beginners and US researchers – the dollar funding and narrow scope make it easy to start, even if the fees and limits cap upside. |
| Beginner friendly | Yes. $10 minimum deposit, debit-card funding, KYC only required before first withdrawal. |
| Automation | Low |
| Pricing | 10% commission on profits and 5% withdrawal fee, with a $3,500 per-contract position cap. |
| Trust signal | Operated since 2014 under an original CFTC no-action letter, full DCM and DCO approval granted to parent Aristotle in September 2025. |
| Main risk | Fee structure plus the $3,500 cap means even correct calls can lose meaningfully to commissions and withdrawal cuts. |
What is PredictIt?
PredictIt is the original political prediction market for US retail traders, and it shows. Launched in October 2014 by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand as an academic research project, the platform survived three years of CFTC litigation – a 2022 no-action letter revocation, a Fifth Circuit injunction, and a final settlement in July 2025. The September 2025 DCM and DCO approval for parent Aristotle cleared the last legal hurdle.
The edge is informational – PredictIt’s archives stretch back to the 2014 midterms, and over 200 academic researchers have published using its data. For political traders, it remains a reference price for elections and a hedge against partisan outcomes.
- Trade US political outcomes in dollars: Buy yes or no shares on election winners, congressional control, party nominations, and political milestones, priced between $0.01 and $0.99.
- Size up to the federal contribution cap: Each contract caps positions at $3,500, raised in 2025 from the original $850 limit. That matches the federal individual campaign contribution limit.
- Use it as research data: Public market endpoints make prices easy to track externally, with archives that have powered academic forecasting studies for over a decade.
- Withdraw to a bank account, slowly: Funds clear via standard payment rails after KYC. A 30-day holding period on new deposits applies before withdrawal.
Key features
US politics focus: Presidential races, congressional control, party nominations, state elections, and headline-driven political milestones.
Per-contract position cap: $3,500 per market, up from $850 under the original no-action letter. Forces traders to spread exposure across markets.
Academic research backbone: Operates under the Prediction Market Research Council framework with Aristotle handling operations. Data feeds dozens of researchers and universities.
Dollar funding, debit-card deposits: $10 minimum deposit, instant card processing, no crypto involvement.
Public market data endpoints: Free price and volume data for external dashboards, models, and academic studies.
Pros and Cons for Beginners
- Longest-running US political prediction market, live since October 2014.
- Full CFTC DCM and DCO approval secured September 2025 after winning litigation.
- Dollar funding, debit-card deposits, no crypto wallet required.
- Public data endpoints suitable for external models and research.
- Available in all 50 US states for users aged 18+.
- 10% commission on profits and 5% withdrawal fee cut deeply into returns.
- $3,500 per-contract position cap blocks meaningful size.
- Politics-only scope, no sports, crypto, or economic markets.
- No native mobile app, browser-based interface feels dated.
- 30-day deposit holding period delays withdrawals on new funds.
Trust and credibility
PredictIt is the oldest legal US prediction market, operating since October 2014. The platform survived a three-year CFTC challenge that started with a 2022 no-action letter revocation, hit a Fifth Circuit injunction in July 2023, and ended with a July 2025 settlement plus full DCM and DCO approval for parent Aristotle in September 2025. Governance now sits with the Prediction Market Research Council, replacing the original Victoria University arrangement. The platform reports more than 400,000 active users and has powered academic work from over 200 researchers. The fee structure and position caps reflect its origin as a research project, not a commercial exchange.
Established (>12 months).
Automation level: Low
| Automation feature | Status |
|---|---|
| Copy trading | No |
| Auto trading rules | No |
| Alerts, real-time notifications | Limited, basic email alerts only |
| Trading from interface | Yes, via web browser only. No native mobile app. |
| API or SDK | Public market data endpoints, no full trading API |
| Best automation use case | External price tracking and academic modeling, not active trading automation |
FAQ
PredictIt is a US-based political prediction market where users trade yes/no contracts on elections, party control, and policy outcomes. Each share is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, paying $1 if the predicted outcome happens and $0 if it does not.
Yes. The interface is simple, deposits start at $10, and KYC is only required before withdrawal. The scope is narrow enough that political followers can grasp it without trading background, though the fees and caps need attention.
No. There is no copy-trading feature and no full trading API. Public market data endpoints exist for price tracking, but execution stays manual through the web interface.
Yes. PredictIt charges a 10% commission on profits per market and a 5% fee on withdrawals. There are no per-trade fees or deposit fees, but the profit-based commission structure can eat meaningfully into returns over time.
Originally yes, and it still operates with an academic research framework. Over 200 researchers have used its data, and the new Prediction Market Research Council governance keeps that focus. But for users, it functions primarily as a trading venue.
The fee structure plus the $3,500 position cap. Even correct calls can lose materially to the 10% profit commission and 5% withdrawal fee, especially on small edges. Sizing strategies that work on Kalshi or Polymarket do not translate cleanly here
