Learn to Trade Prediction Markets — From First Trade to Profitable Strategy

Predictionist School is a sequenced curriculum on prediction-market trading. Each module builds on the previous one — taking you from your first trade through running real strategies on real platforms. 22 modules across four levels, free.

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Level 1 — Fundamentals

• • 1.1 What Are Prediction Markets? — Binary contracts, price as probability, and how prediction markets differ from gambling and stocks.

• • 1.2 How Pricing Works — The $0–$1 scale, implied probability, and why prices move.

• • 1.3 Your First Trade — Choose a platform, set up an account, place a trade, and walk through resolution.

• • 1.4 Understanding Risk — Why most traders lose, the six risks you must accept, and when not to trade.

• • 1.5 Choosing Your Platform — Decision framework: geography, funding, markets, fees, liquidity, regulation.

Level 2 — Market Mechanics

• • 2.1 Order Books and Liquidity — CLOBs, AMMs, slippage, depth charts, and limit vs market orders.

• • 2.2 Resolution and Settlement — UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, Kalshi’s process, dispute mechanisms, and real case studies.

• • 2.3 Fees, Spreads, and the True Cost of Trading — The fee stack, the Total Friction Threshold, and why “profitable” trades can still lose money.

• • 2.4 Reading Market Signals — Volume, price velocity, whale tracking, and news-to-price lag.

• • 2.5 Cross-Platform Differences — Why the same event prices differently across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

Level 3 — Trading Strategies

• • 3.1 Where the Edge Comes From — Why prediction markets aren’t fully efficient, and the three sources of edge.

• • 3.2 Strategy: Cross-Platform Arbitrage — Buy low on one platform, sell high on another. Friction model and Go/No-Go checklist.

• • 3.3 Strategy: Data-Driven Trading — Public data inputs to probability models — trading the gap between your number and the market’s.

• • 3.4 Strategy: Systematic Bias Exploitation — Favorite-longshot bias and other documented errors, traded as a portfolio.

• • 3.5 Strategy: Fundamental Analysis — Single-actor markets, reference class forecasting, decision-maker patterns.

• • 3.6 Strategy: Market Making — Providing liquidity for the spread; adverse selection and capital requirements.

• • 3.7 Strategy: Event-Driven Trading — News-cycle trading, information asymmetry, and the speed hierarchy.

Level 4 — Mastery & Systems

• • 4.1 Building Your Trading System — The four components of a documented system: market selection, entry, sizing, and exit rules.

• • 4.2 The Trading Journal — The 10 fields to log per trade, the weekly review, and how to compute your Brier score.

• • 4.3 Portfolio Construction — Correlation as the hidden risk; managing total exposure across positions, categories, and platforms.

• • 4.4 Trading Psychology — The six psychological traps and the system-level countermeasures that defuse them.

• • 4.5 The Superforecaster Mindset — Tetlock’s research applied to PM trading: granular probabilities, base rates, calibration.

• • 4.6 What’s Next — Your Trading Plan — The 90-day plan: Foundation (1–2), Validation (3–6), Deployment (7–12).